PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS AND INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT AS DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Аннотация

Background: Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have emerged as a pivotal mechanism for
financing infrastructure development in transition economies with constrained public budgets.
Despite growing policy interest, the macroeconomic impact of PPP-driven infrastructure
investment in Uzbekistan remains empirically underexplored.
Aim: This study examines the relationship between PPP-based infrastructure investment and GDP
growth in Uzbekistan over the period 2000–2023, with a focus on the transport, energy, and water
supply sectors.
Methods: We employ Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, the Autoregressive Distributed
Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach, and Granger causality tests using annual data sourced from
the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank.
Results: Empirical findings confirm that a 1% increase in PPP infrastructure investment as a share
of GDP is associated with a 1.42–1.87% increase in real GDP in the long run. Transport and energy
infrastructure demonstrate the strongest multiplier effects. Institutional quality and financial sector
depth moderate the relationship.
Conclusion: Strengthening the PPP regulatory framework, expanding long-term financing
instruments, and improving institutional capacity are critical enablers for sustaining infrastructuredriven economic growth in Uzbekistan. The proposed "5I Strategic Model" offers a coherent
roadmap for policy implementation.